As we come to terms with the news that UK schools are about to close for what could be six months, I find myself reflecting on how lucky we are.
Imagine if this had happened before the mass adoption of the web?
When I was at school there was no internet. A pc was a rarity. Mobile phones unheard of.
I would not have been able to order what I needed online - and there certainly was no opportunity to experience e-learning, virtual classrooms or any of the other digital innovations education has been dancing with, but will now have to adopt on a mass and 'business-as-usual' scale. Imagine facing the next six months without any of that.
Of course, the same is true of business.
The web allows us to continue to trade, to continue to meet and do deals, to collaborate on ideas, concepts, prototypes, launch strategies and projects of all kinds.
We are exceptionally lucky that Covid19 comes at a time when we have the technology to physically self-isolate WHILE socially connecting. This is the only time in history that has been possible.
The web has given us a critical advantage vs this virus.
We can continue pretty much every aspect of trade and education. We can maintain our economic progress. We can do it while improving our relationship with our planet.
All we have to do is get over the shock and get used to a few new tools.
We can do this.
The further ahead you look - the faster you go | davidpcushman AT gmail.com | These are my views and my views only.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
Covid-19: You can only predict with the data you have. Scary numbers in context
Like so many commenting on this Covid19 crisis - I'm no expert. I just connect the dots to try to understand - just as I do with anything else I experience.
So here's my guess on what the Government is up to:
1. They were always planning to put the vulnerable in a long period of isolation. The bet was that in isolation very few (comparatively) would succumb. They were expecting the 10s of thousands of deaths number they now hope to manage us towards.
2. Acting in this way early enough would allow the wider society to continue to function and - crucially - the NHS to cope.
They assumed that those requiring hospital beds would broadly be in that vulnerable group with limited exposure. But lots of younger folk need some care. They survive - but they need NHS resources. That's what the data shows from Lombardy - and that creates the crisis point for the NHS.
I think the tipping point moment for the Government was when they recognised (only this weekend) that there were likely to be up to half a million cases in the UK already - not the few thousand detected. In that scenario it is highly likely that those now being asked to isolate for months include large numbers who have already come into contact with the virus.
That could result in significantly higher numbers of deaths than an earlier invocation of isolation for the vulnerable would have caused.
If you take a (broadly) mid-point mortality rate between the Chinese and Italian experiences you end up with 100,000s of thousands dieing in the UK. This sounds scary big but remember, 550,000 people die in the UK every year and many of those this virus will be accountable for are substitutional rather than additional (ie folk who may well have died in the same 12 month period).
To provide some further context, if 100,000 people do die in the UK - that's one in 600. Alcohol or drugs kills 1 in 34 , heart disease 1 in 4. And the average American has a 1 in 77 chance of being killed by firearms.
Had we moved to isolate the vulnerable earlier, the period of social distancing for the rest of us that is now required could have been significantly shortened. But you can only predict with the data you have. And that 500,000-cases-in-the-uk guestimate is very new.
My guess is now that restrictions will only be lifted once the vulnerable are secured and the hospitalisation-rate among them calculated.
The Great Pause has begun.
So here's my guess on what the Government is up to:
1. They were always planning to put the vulnerable in a long period of isolation. The bet was that in isolation very few (comparatively) would succumb. They were expecting the 10s of thousands of deaths number they now hope to manage us towards.
2. Acting in this way early enough would allow the wider society to continue to function and - crucially - the NHS to cope.
They assumed that those requiring hospital beds would broadly be in that vulnerable group with limited exposure. But lots of younger folk need some care. They survive - but they need NHS resources. That's what the data shows from Lombardy - and that creates the crisis point for the NHS.
I think the tipping point moment for the Government was when they recognised (only this weekend) that there were likely to be up to half a million cases in the UK already - not the few thousand detected. In that scenario it is highly likely that those now being asked to isolate for months include large numbers who have already come into contact with the virus.
That could result in significantly higher numbers of deaths than an earlier invocation of isolation for the vulnerable would have caused.
If you take a (broadly) mid-point mortality rate between the Chinese and Italian experiences you end up with 100,000s of thousands dieing in the UK. This sounds scary big but remember, 550,000 people die in the UK every year and many of those this virus will be accountable for are substitutional rather than additional (ie folk who may well have died in the same 12 month period).
To provide some further context, if 100,000 people do die in the UK - that's one in 600. Alcohol or drugs kills 1 in 34 , heart disease 1 in 4. And the average American has a 1 in 77 chance of being killed by firearms.
Had we moved to isolate the vulnerable earlier, the period of social distancing for the rest of us that is now required could have been significantly shortened. But you can only predict with the data you have. And that 500,000-cases-in-the-uk guestimate is very new.
My guess is now that restrictions will only be lifted once the vulnerable are secured and the hospitalisation-rate among them calculated.
The Great Pause has begun.
Saturday, March 14, 2020
The business logic of Planet Experience
There has never been a better time to shift the way you create value to elevate the planet's experience to the level of the customer's experience (Planet Experience).
In Planet Experience, we have a framework for operationalising sustainability and placing it at the heart of value generation and business strategy.
Planet Experience makes for a better business model. Costs fall, innovation drives increased benefits.
1. In acting fast - being proactive - you gain market leadership and get ahead of legislation.
2. You attract and retain customers, talent, investment.
3. Drive creative innovation.
4. Reduce risk to supply chain.
5. Cut energy costs.
6. Cut raw materials costs.
7. Cut water costs.
8. Cut waste disposal costs.
9. Savings fund transformation costs.
10. Sustains the eco-system in which you wish to seek to continue to generate profits.
Evidence? Take a look at the Ray Andersen TedTalk below.
Now you are ready to act - get in touch. First hour free 1-2-1 consultancy via video link until the end of April.
Photo by Lukas Blazek on Unsplash
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The rate of change is so rapid it's difficult for one person to keep up to speed. Let's pool our thoughts, share our reactions and, who knows, even reach some shared conclusions worth arriving at?
