We Are All Companies Now - a narrative for the 2020s

2021 marks 15 years of looking into the future for this blog. The intent was always to look further ahead in order to go faster - drawing from my motorcycle training. The further ahead you look on the road, the earlier you see the twists and turns - the direction of travel - and the greater your ability to spot and avoid emerging risks.

To that end, and with a new decade dawning (there was never a year zero, so they always start with a 1), I want to map out the road ahead as I see it and consider a narrative for the journey ahead.

For me its important to focus on the Human Experience Trends - the ones that change the context in which we experience our lives. The consequences of these are new needs. And it is in serving those new needs that future prosperity lies.

My list is:

1. Sustainability

2. Decentralisation

3. Personalisation

4. Low Code/No Code

5. Automation

6. Wellness

7. Small pieces

8. Platform

9. Start-up

The most successful responses will be those which respond where multiple trends converge. For example a Sustainable, Decentralised, Personalised response focusing on Wellness and applying Automation to deliver an ever-improving experience.

A proxy for predicting the success of your future plans could therefore be in the number of trends ticked off. But trends do not a value product make. Instead, trends direct you to where to look for the consequent future experiences from which need emerges.

So you will need to understand the impact of these trends on the human experience. Faster Future Consulting's #ResponsiveOrganisation framework can help here. Other frameworks are, of course,  available. 

But first, let's put some meat on the bones. Let's explore potential consequent contexts.

1. Sustainability. Top of my personal list and, increasingly high on the list of those who can afford for it to be. For me sustainability is all about creating a safe and just space for humanity (from Doughnut Economics). I have a framework in #planetexperience which seeks to place the planet on the same pedestal that successful businesses have placed their customer in the last 20 years. We can imagine a very near future in which planet benefits (just as customer benefits are) are understood and designed to be net in every new product, service and experience design. Those companies leading the way in this will gain the same kind of competitive advantage as the big winners of the last 20 years have through their customer obsession. Planet obsession is not a replacement for customer obsession. It is an ally and equal.

2. Decentralisation. The trend has been accelerating since the web started usurping production lines as the primary means of value production. It has only been accelerated by Covid-19. The future of decentralisation was already here, it has simply been distributed more evenly in the last year to include where we work. The trend is further disrupting computing; with 5G, the demands of AI and the easy availability of Internet Of Things devices driving a demand for Edge Computing. The nodes on the network are becoming increasingly self-sufficient, being enabled with both the capabilities and capacities to do what only centralised functions could achieve before. The media industry was first to feel this punch (we are all publishers now). Is there a corollary of this in the future of work (we are all companies now)? This particular new context, converged with automation and start-up open a world of new needs for solutions that democratise building a business - across all functions from raising finance to developing the tech.

3. Personalisation. One size fits all was a mass production solution for a mass production age. The widespread application of AI enables a new accelerant to the personalisation trend. Not only can we personalise how we sell to individuals, now we can enable last-yard personalisation of physical products; enabling customers to remix and remodel to meet their own needs in the home. Combine 3D printing to deliver the home factory (as we discussed on FasterFuture back in 2010). There is a current trend I'd call the 'SodaStreamisation' of home personalisation - in which businesses are creating in-home machines for you to create and personalise at home. Think Nespresso and next-generation versions such as L'oreal's Perso. Looking further ahead there is a market for the home factory platform - the future generations of 3D printing. Edge Computing will drive increased capabilities in these devices. The desire to gather personal data in order to better serve your needs may extend to new models of freemium. For example, take our fridge for free, in exchange for the data it generates about your purchasing habits and lifestyle. We may enter a decade in which only those rich enough can afford home appliances that don't share their data with a whole range of third-party suppliers.

4. Low Code/No Code. In the near term the rise of low code/no code solutions accelerates the democratisation of capabilities which were once the domain of business process optimisation experts (in hyper-automation, for example) and in particular those who held the keys to the code. Just as the power of the church was enhanced by its hold over reading and writing, or the power of capital is enhanced by ownership of the means of production, so placing the value realisation asset of code in the reach of more and more people, gives them power. Right now it enables the transformation of current capabilities and therefore capacities, at an increased rate.  People can be re-enabled to do the jobs that were once only open to writers of code. This provides more control and greater fit with need since end users of the product become the people creating the product. That's win number 1. But there is also a real benefit in giving people a much broader set of skills - making your teams more able to flex toward demand. When the business planning needs doing, the energy can be focused there. When the build needs doing, you gain more capacity to focus there. Low code/no code will transform how we work and what we work on - and bring us all closer to making products. Widespread adoption makes the organisation more responsive to the #contextshocks shaping and reshaping the ever more ambiguous future ahead.

5. Automation. Closely connected with Low Code/No Code as a trend, automation has focused on understanding processes, often very complex ones, and making them available at the touch of a button (or the trigger of a condition). The advent of AI to add to the RPA and Machine Learning mix makes it possible for the automation to be constantly self-learning and self-improving. Just as automation now plays a large part in Cloud deployment and management of infrastructure, a convergence with trends in Start-up, Low Code/No Code and Decentralisation lights up new roles for automation (as referenced in the notion that we are All Companies Now in Trend 2, Decentralisation.) Imagine having identified a new problem in an emerging future, you have created your POC. If the full services of Cloud deployment could be deployed by a smart AI on your behalf, all the IT skills required established as learnable processes, then even this layer of the hard bits of building a business could be offered as a service. Of course, automation will have increasing impact on very wide areas of our lives and you need only imagine any business process to identify and discern the repeatable from the learnable from the unknowable to map where automation can be deployed to help the humans focus on the less knowable.

6. Wellness. The evidence stacks up that when we measure and track our health, we maintain it more effectively. This extends to mental as well as physical wellbeing. Both have risen up the agenda in the last year because of the rate of change we have been exposed to. And while we may strive to maintain a growth mindset, the preference for efficiency at the heart of our energy-hungry brains drives us to seek certainty. We may be truth-seeking machines powered by doubt, but doubt is far from our preferred state. A range of new solutions which treat employees with the same focus on personalisation could enhance employee happiness and effectiveness. Imagine taking the data we are able to capture about our distributed teams' use of technology - could we identify when an individual works at their best, can we identify emerging unhappiness from rate of key stroke, use of language, changes in normal routines etc, and deploy smart and caring interventions. Positive psychology (eg go for a walk - we're locking you out of your screen for 1 hour, you need the break). Employees are already wearing bands to ensure they don't spend too much time using heavy machinery to avoid health impacts. Would we be prepared to allow our employers to access our wearable tech. Expect the insurance industry and workplace benefits to start aligning.

I'm going to consider 7,8 and 9 together.

7. Small pieces. Agile, rapid-iterative, responsive ways of working are pretty much the standard model for software development now. The focus on small pieces of rapidly completed chunks of work, in small focused but multi-disciplinary teams, is the norm in start-up land and has grown into scale up land (see companies such as Spotify, Zopa). It has extended into DevOps, DesOps and DevSecOps. The approach has extended to strategy, where the focus on insight into end user need drives a smarter way to create the future you intend. I have characterised this as Product-As-Strategy. Read more about that approach on this link.

8. Platform. Platforms bring people together who have a shared interest in solving a problem and provides ways for them to interface and contribute to solving that problem. In the last 20 years these have formalised and solidified around specific problems and formalised roles in solving them; eg Uber, Facebook. The future lays in a more open approach. The internet is the ultimate platform and offers the greatest access to problem-solving capabilities. Silo-ing the platform is a constraint on value. Future opportunities rise in supporting example new contexts such as 'We Are All Companies Now'. Bringing together people with a shared purpose may enable them to share and appify their business know-how, low code/now code built solutions of their business processes, made available to others to drag and drop into their own startup - business-as-a-service solutions.

9. Start-up. Start-up is a way of working. And its not unique to start-ups. Every start-up sets out to solve an end user problem. It is powered by the belief there is a better way to do something. To date this has required the lone entrepreneur to disappear into the garage and begin a lonely journey. On the plus side, they had belief in their solution - and something meeting an emerging need. On the minus side, they had little more than the vision. Future platforms may offer them the business-building-block apps to both validate to go/no-go rapidly and scale out fast when green-lit. But why should they have all the fun? Why shouldn't we enable our workforces as smartly? Large organisations which are able to appify their business capabilities, and make all of those capabilities widely available to all of their people effectively give start-up freedom to every employee - supported by enterprise knowhow and access to capital. Those that move first and fast to this new way of working unleash multiples of effectiveness, make better use of the human capital advantage to imagine better, and give themselves more and faster routes to meeting future need.

The narrative that 'We Are All Companies Now' offers a way to understand the impact of all these trends on how we live and work. Just as the narrative 'We Are All Publishers Now' did when I coined it in relation to the impact of the web on the world of media and publishing back in 2008.

At first the majority consumed what the minority produced as publishers. Today in 2020 almost everyone being entertained or informed by the web is also publishing (or at least distributing) what is produced.

So I expect the vast majority of us will want to continue to consume what the smaller number of us create as companies for quite some time to come. But I do expect more and more people to engage in the value creating activity we see enshrined in the formation of companies and while, as discussed in point 9 above, the first experience is likely to be in the context of an internal platform, it seems to me that the trends described here, taken in total, point towards a future in which how we create value and the organisations within which we do that, are reconfigured, just as the media industry has been disrupted.

Photo by David Travis on Unsplash

Product-As-Strategy: Start-up superpowers for BigCo

Legacy organisations face two big problems as we stumble out of the great backlog clearance of 2020 and face up to new realities.

• They are trading on previous market-making innovations - and the market has moved on.
• They have lost the know-how to make new things at speed.

The solution is Product-As-Strategy: The application of product management discipline to solve for future needs.

Every multi-national business starts life as a start-up. Every start-up was ignited by the passionate desire to fix something that was wrong with the way things were or that could be done better. They all identified a problem that faced people and went about solving it.

By their nature they were product based. They started with the sketch of an idea. They tested that idea as cheaply as they could. They built a response to it, as fast and as inexpensively as they could. They learnt from what they did. They reshaped to align ever better to what they learned.

They had fun doing it. They were excited about creating something new that people would value. They made breakthrough products and new markets.

Sound familiar?

What I've just described is not only the spark that founds an empire, it's the rapid-iterative, insight-led and experience-centred approach applied by the most successful product, service and experience designers. It accelerates the product through Ideate-Concept-Prototype-Launch-Monitor. It applies Design Thinking, MVP (minimum viable product), Lean Start-up and Agile principles to focus on what can be learned to create value for the end user with each iteration, With appropriate insight is can only ever fail forwards (pivoting towards value) if that can be called failure.

Bringing back this way of working, re-establishing it and making it real again is one part of future-proofing today's legacy organisations. It's a very important part because an organisation - as far as its customers is concerned - IS its products.

Delivering smart product process requires a range of solutions to tackle inertias found in large organisations, for example:

Finance - product teams are best when cross functional - so who funds what, who gets rewarded for what. And when the product is 'never finished' how do you budget? Product-centred budgeting within broader product strategies offer some pointers.

HR - Hierarchies tend to flatten and roles merge. Product teams are more like start-up teams where everyone is doing a bit of everything. Low-code/no code solutions are opening tech to business people and business ideation techniques like Design Thinking are opening business to tech people. We need more fuzzy people and that takes a new approach to roles, fluid and MVP job descriptions.

There are others to tackle around the challenges of silos in large companies - the kind of silos that don't exist in start-ups, that must also be overcome. 

And they can be, and are, overcome by businesses organising themselves around product every day - with different forms of organisation drawing from agile and holacracy. Spotify is a famous example of the 'agile management' approach in which the organisation consists of Squads, Tribes and Guilds.

To get started fast, the product management process can be deployed in single strategic function; with a ring fenced budget and allocated team. This can act as Proof of Concept.

But to make this more than a fast and effective way to clear your backlog (ie solving problems you have identified from the needs identified in past contexts), we must add a way of seeing the future.

This is where my framework for the Responsive Organisation can deploy.

In brief; when impacted by a context shock, we should map the consequences (1st,2nd,3rd order...) in a systems map, identifying new contexts and using both insight and imagination (foresight) to determine new needs emerging from the human experience in those new and consequent consequences.

Naturally, these should be selected for vs an organisations own ambitions.

But in selecting to serve the needs of customers that are yet to emerge the organisation can start creating the future it intends and therefore can embrace.

This provides strategic prioritisation for the products it should make and as they iterate (with insight fed in to every step) the product shapes ever close to meeting real need as it emerges.

This combination of identifying future market-making needs to solve against, and establishing the capabilty to meet those through rapid and insight-rich product iteration means:

• The organisation re-establishes its market-making position
• The organisation builds the muscle to respond to need at speed

That is Product-As-Strategy. Start-up Superpowers for Large Companies.

Photo by AbsolutVision on Unsplash

Zombie memories threaten our ability to handle uncertainty

What do we even mean by 'normal'. It's an important question as we navigate the oceans of uncertainty that have risen all around us in 2020. It's important because we are starting to bid 2020 goodbye (and good riddance) and ask each other what we think will happen next.

The simple act of asking what comes next reveals the crux of this challenge. We want predictability. We want to be able to repeat experiments in which A causes B. Reliably.

But perhaps our use of digital proxies for familiar ways of doing things are giving us a false sense of normality. We have built ourselves little islands of routine in which a mirage of normality can be maintained and while that aligns with our aversion to uncertainty, it leaves us at risk of convincing ourselves that life is becoming more predictable than the evidence around us would suggest.

Normal - in psychological terms - "means ways of being, and doing, things that are familiar. Things that we are used to doing, in the ways we are used to doing them," according to Dr Rowena Hill, a psychologist at Nottingham Trent University. She researches the human aspects of emergency management and disaster.

Aleks Krotoski in her BBC Sounds podcast Digital Human (series 20, Normal) coins the rather wonderful term Zoom-bie Apocalypse, echoing the way that ingrained behaviours forced Zombies back to shopping malls in the movies, so we congregate in Zoom calls trying to echo behaviours from our old world - the after work drinks, the dinner table chat. All of it more stilted, juddering and dislocated, digital proxies of actual social moments.

As Aleks points out, we are uncertainty averse. Our use of digital social proxies is a work around for us - offering us the ultimately unsatisfactory comfort of old familiar certainties.

It would be foolish to expect anything other than the unexpected in 2021, no matter what the comfort we may find in Zombie memories of our past lives.

The smart thing is to prepare for still more #contextshocks in which the consequences deliver new contexts in which new needs will emerge. The smart thing is to work to make yourself responsive, to play your part in learning from those new contexts, selecting how to respond to those needs and in doing so creating the future you both intend and can embrace.

#ResponsiveOrganisations (as I have published before) must task themselves with discovering and selecting the new needs they best serve and testing their way to serving them - accepting that IS prediction in our ocean of uncertainty.

2020 has been good for those with the deepest reserves. But living off your fat may not be the best preparation for what comes next.

2021 is likely to favour those best adapted to handling uncertainty, those ready to ditch the proxies and workarounds. Those with least to lose by admitting they don't have certainty - and prepared to test their way forward into what comes next.

  

Distributed working can drive a personalised approach to employee experience

Optimising employee experience for business benefit is an emergent trend of our increasingly digitally-connected but physically distributed work forces.

Gartner's Future of Work Trends - with data gathered in April this year - already identified 16% of employers admitted to increasing the gathering of passive employee data collection. For example: virtual logging/clocking in and out; computer and phone use; use of email, internal communication and chats; and location or movement.

The data is available to far more than 16% of companies. Working from home has rocketed to closer to 50%. There are ethical questions of course. The same ethical questions facing us as consumers. How relaxed we are about having our every key-stroke captured, stored, diced and used to serve us depends very much on the discernible benefits to us. Increasingly we want to understand what's in it for them, too.

But employers can use this passive employee data more effectively for carrot than for stick.

Given the reported 'burnout' experienced by many - the increase in monthly hours worked (with estimates running at 20-30 extra per employee per month), the physical and creative downsides of parking behind a computer all day, given all this and more, there are new opportunities emerging for data-driven, employer-led wellness interventions.

We are fine when our car tells us it's time to take a break after two hours in the driving seat - perhaps passive data can be used to enforce mental and physical screen breaks? And if, from aggregating data the employer can understand more about what makes an individual effective, even applying some of the A/B testing techniques so readily applied to us as live, real-time consumers, then perhaps demands on us, styles of communications, engagement in meetings, workshops, pitches et al, can start to be designed to suit end user needs with the kind of specificity we have long enjoyed as customers.

Welcome to insight-led, experience-centred, employee and workplace experience. We just have to treat employees with the same respect we have come to understand the customer must be treated with.

Photo by Charles Deluvio on Unsplash

Consensus starts with acknowledging shared beliefs

Win, lose or draw, unless we start realising we have more in common than there is to drive us apart, the real losers will always be the electorate.

As I write the result of the 2020 US Presidential Election is not yet in and thought to be going right to the wire.

And while it is easy to be swept along in hyperbole and vitriol, take a moment to remind yourself that most of us - all around the world - are more like each other than we aren't.

Let's start with what we all agree on. My guess is Democrat or Republican, Brexit Supporter or Remainer we all agree on things like:

1. Health and happiness for all
2. Prosperity for ourselves and neighbours.
3. Caring about and wanting to protect our families and neighbours.
4. Food, clothes and shelter
5. Education for all.

These are just some top-of-head thoughts. I'm sure you can think of others.

Some folk went to the trouble of listing these a few years ago... you may be familiar with them:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all (...) are created equal, that they are endowed ....with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

To solve the problems facing us needs all of us, coming together.