The lessons taught by response to one, lays the groundwork for preparing for many.
In my recent series of articles and blogposts I have outlined:
- What Context Shocks are (a significant change in the context in which your customers/end users/employees experience their lives).
- How To Recognise Them: (Two from: Timeframe; Location; Culture; Events).
- How to Respond to Them: (Map The 1st/2nd/3rd Order Consequences; Identify the New Needs; Iterate to value products vs those needs).
I have also outlined how the organisation can benefit from Context Shocks - by making no assumptions about a normal, old or new, they should struggle to return to - instead moving towards the emerging needs of its customers ( a world of No Normal).
Today I want to add a next step in the journey to becoming more responsive - providing the next level of detail in the 'How' of this journey.
MAPPING CONSEQUENCES
Mapping Consequences is the way in which we map the 1st/2nd/3rd order consequences.
I'm suggesting taking a systems approach - an ecosystem of the possible outcomes and their impact, one on another, drawing from systems thinking found in studying the ecosystems of the natural environment.
So building on the first slide shown above (and detailed in 10 Things I've Learned in 20 Years of Digital And Change): (please do click the image to enlarge).
In the slide immediately above, note the emphasis on weak signals - for example an increase in google searches for something related (in this case).
It is equally important to emphasise that each consequence is itself a new experience context (from 2nd onwards).
We literally draw lines into the future based on our expectations of how human need will change within the new set of constraints each new consequence defines. Examples: If offices close, can we, in this new context, imagine a human need to go to the same streets we used to work in to buy sandwiches? Can we imagine homes replacing offices as offices replaced factories?
The connectors - shown above - of the Mapping Consequences ecosystem above - express consequence, the next bubble they connect to, an imagined new context.
And as in any system, expect feedback loops to apply; eg longer lock-down, greater impact on consquences (with impact on constraints) which impact wellbeing.
This approach not only steers the Responsive Organisation toward meeting new need, it also emphasises respect for insights drawn from in-context experience.
To look ahead for the direction of consequences and the potential new contexts, we must apply imagination. We can look to the weak signals shared by others in the system to guide our imagination but we must always validate the conclusions we draw by accessing the imagination of larger numbers of people experiencing the system.
Further Reading:
1. The Responsive Organisation is Built To Flourish Amid Context Shocks
2. Lock-Down creates the fastest shifts in context we have ever seen.
3. The Greatest Opportunity of our life times - To Create A New Better
4. Lessons in Resilience Any Time-Served Motorcyclist Can Teach.
5. The New Better of Work: Virtualising the best of office and home.
6. The Language of Lock-Down Is Holding Us Back
7. The Future of Work is Distributed across Time, Space & Leadership
8. Urgent Transformation? Dump The Strategy and Get On With It
9. Urgency Makes Everyone An Innovator - And Changes the Organisation
10. In Stressed Environments Speed of Adaption is Key Survival Indicator
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