Size - not growth rate - matters for communities

Tokyo - by http://www.flickr.com/photos/oimax/

I read all the claims about the rapid growth of google+ ‘use’ and I still feel unmoved.

Perhaps it’s for the reason that I put ‘use’ in quote marks: Google + feels very much in its nascent, gave it a try, walked off, may-be-back-if-enough-other-folk-find-it-interesting-to-remind-me-about-it-later, phase.

Which, to be fair, is how I started with Twitter. But also with a hundred other new kids on the block.

But perhaps my reticence is also because of a remarkable scaling effect which happens in communities. I say communities, it looks to me like this has only been applied to cities thus far, so bear with me...

I came across an interesting article by Marcus Du Sautoy at the weekend. This is the chap who has written and is presenting the current BBC series The Code (http://www.bbc.co.uk/tv/features/code/)  – which looks at the mathematics which appear to govern, well pretty much everything.

Du Sautoy cites the work of British-born theoretical physicist Geoffrey West who used maths to discover fundamental laws governing cities. 

“...it can be understood by a single magic number: 1.15. Each time the population of a city increases by 100 per cent (in other words doubles) the social and economic factors scale up by 115 per cent.

“So, if you compare a city with a population of one million people to a city of two million, then instead of the larger city having twice as many restaurants, concert halls, libraries and schools, you find instead an extra 15 per cent on top of what you’d expect. Even salaries are affected by this curious ratio...”

In other words the value of being part of a community (my derivation) grows by an extra 15% each time that community doubles in size.

And while Google+ has reached its first 10m users in a spectacularly fast period of time (16 days compared with Twitter’s 780 and Facebook’s 852) its value to the members of that community is similarly spectacularly limited by its relative lack of scale.

Let’s try the maths (not my strongest point so feel free to point out flaws and correct me:

Based on Facebook having 640m users and Twitter having 175m (Wikipedia August 1, 2011). Then the social/economic advantage conferred over Google + users is: approximately 200% greater for Twitter users and 230% greater for Facebook users.

Simply – Facebook and Twitter ought to prove at least twice as valuable to current users thanks to the scaling up of value delivered by the sheer size of community.

Growth rate has no impact on that.

So until we have a Google + with at least 100m users (and likely twice that) there’s little chance of it delivery the user experience either Twitter or Facebook can.

The dodgy maths bit:

How did I get to this? I took 10m as the base value (Google + users after 16 days). I doubled this, then doubled the outcome and doubled that (etc) until I reach the scale of Twitter and then Facebook (an approximate in the case of Twitter).

Taking ‘1’ as my base value for ‘social-economic factors’ generated, I multiplied by our magic number (1.15), for every time the base community doubled in size.

eg 10m users x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 640m (= Facebook).

Therefore social-economic factors multiply thus: 1 x 1.15 x 1.15 x 1.15 x 1.15 x1.15 x 1.15 = 2.3 (therefore a growth of 230% compared with original 10m strong community).

Related articles

• Marcus du Sautoy interview: 'There's a geek chic about maths now' (telegraph.co.uk)
• Google plus invite and DMS thoughts on Google+ (dms-internetmarketing.co.uk)
• 5 things Google+ does better than Facebook and Twitter (venturebeat.com)
• Opinion: Why Twitter is obsolete (macworld.com)
• Why size isn't everything - at least for communities... (thewayoftheweb.net)
• Google+ grabs record 25M unique visitors, but it's not fair to compare to Facebook (venturebeat.com)

When is a free download not a free download?

Regular followers of this blog will know I'm a bit of an evangelist for 3's ground-breaking X-Series and its free-at-the-point-of-use (ie flat-rate) data charges.

Should end all the confusion over data charges, shouldn't it?

If only. It's a shame, but I've just had to fire off a complaint to their press office.

The crux is that as part of my deal I get '£5 of free downloads a month'. On my bill this refers to TV channels.

I decided I'd have the £5 mobile TV 'add-on' for my entitlement.

And I've spent a few months happily watching in spare moments and opportune environs.
Trouble is, it turns out an 'add-on' isn't a download. And I've been billed an extra £5 every month.

I argue this is semantics. I'm entitled to £5 of freebie - I want this bit please.

It's worth noting that I have always assumed that by using the TV add on and I am using my 'free £5 download' and for that reason have not downloaded any of the other 'freebies'.

Customer services won't have it.

Customer complaints won't have it.

Neither would action my request to accelerate my complaint to people higher up the food chain who might actually understand the situation from the customer's perspective.

Hugely frustrating. I've ended up sending an email to the press office (which their complaints department claimed they didn't have - not the first time I've had that particular one span at me! - last time it was a mortgage company. Schoolboy error when you're dealing with a journalist...)

The message is simple really - this customer feels mislead - how are 3 going to put that right?

Answer - you clicked for the add-on service - that's your problem.

I have a thought or two in response to this kind of 'customers from mars, companies from venus' thinking.

They've turned a 3 evangelist into an enemy by being maddeningly intransigent. Not bright, is it?

UPDATE: June 15, 2007 A call from 3's executive office results in a refund. I'm told my email is now being circulated internally and that customer service improvements are about to be implemented. I offer the advice that they should empower their customer-facing staff to make decisions based on understanding the customer, rather than reading a script - and they should clarify their bills. Result: I feel I have finally been listened to, I have finally been engaged with - but it took considerable effort on my part to make that happen. Surely that's the wrong way round?

3 tears down more of the wall...

3 has extended its uncapped data package for mobile internet to all its users. More here.
Now any 3 customer can get 'unlimited' mobile internet access for £5 a month. That's the same package as has been available for the X-series (and that was just one phone initially, the Nokia N73) since November last year.
Expect to see a massive acceleration in mobile internet use and even more pressure on O2 (already offering capped rate data packages if you threaten to leave, so I hear) et al to follow 3's lead.
Another very significant milestone on the road to the mobile internet becoming the dominant mode of internet access.

You know mobile internet has arrived when...

... even the Mail on Sunday is producing supplements about mobile internet (in it's Financial Mail section).
The March 18 issue heralded it as 'The Biggest Hit of the Year and said: "After ignoring it for so long, the mobile phone industry has finally embraced the internet... and it is set to be a marriage made in heaven."
The article quotes Nokia's CEO on how his company is 'putting the internet in your pocket'. The impact and ideas behind 3's X-Series are discussed and Juniper Research is quoted saying the value of the mobile entertainment market is predicted to his £42 billion by 2011.
So, I guess the secret is out. How well prepared are you? If you thought you were ahead of the game - several million more people just caught up/on.
But of course it's not just knowing that the mobile internet is going to become dominant. We've 'known this' since April 2006 (Tomi T Ahonen's prediction) - it's knowing why and how it will do it (is doing it) that's critical.
Then you can work out the best possible response. But there's one thing for sure - there's less time to do that today than there was last week!

Nokia announce skype phone, I-phone due this week, BT announce 12 'wireless cities' plan

It's all kicking off for mobile operators. Free calls on your mobile is right here and right now.
Over on Forum Oxford, Tomi Ahonen revealed that Skype and Nokia are collaborating to develop a new mobile Skype experience on the Nokia N800 Internet Tablet, introduced on January 8.
This is different from Skype on your mobile via your 3G internet connection (though that's possible, too, just as it is on the N73 in 3's X-Series deal.) This is making use of the N800's effective wi-fi connectivity to give you really fast skyping - so video calls should be as easy as voice.
And that's inspired a flurry of speculation that the long-awaited I-Phone from Apple (though I don't expect it to be called that, someone else registered the name long ago...) will be announced this week too (the CES conference is on in Las Vegas this week where such things occur, I am reliably informed).
And, Stef Coetzee tells us, BT has announced its Fusion phone is now going on sale in Phones4U stores and that they are rolling out 12 'wireless' cities where by March next year there will be consistent wireless coverage in city centres. BT offers calls on this wireless network at the rate of four mins for the price of one of their ordinary ones. It's hoping the growth of wifi handsets will inspire lift off.
So not only do we now have free-at-the-point-of-use internet access on 3G (X-series on 3), we're going to get wi-fi coverage (at least in cities) which should offer really fast access in double quick time.
Surely it's now just a matter of time before an operator offers a fixed charge for it all - mobile web, calls, text, wi-fi.
It's one more reason why your mobile will become not only your primary communications device but also your primary point of access to the internet. And it's happening faster by the day.
Plan for this, design for it too.

3 X-Series: Activating Orb

Another update on progress with my X-Series (3's ground-breaking fixed-price mobile internet package.
I finally got around to playing with Orb on it last night (attempts to install orb at work having failed due to the security issues around turning a networked pc into a broadcast device...)
At home it worked a treat. Within seconds I was viewing all the images I have on my pc on my mobile - and each one automatically optimised for the mobile browser.
A proper jaw-dropping moment.
Documents were quick and easy to access too.
Can't wait to trial with videos.

My lovely new phone, er, computer, er...

Since I made such a song and dance about 3's fixed-price mobile internet access (describing it as the single most important digital development of recent times, and being quoted across the blogosphere for saying as much...), I thought I'd better share a few of the realities now I have a Nokia N73 in my sweaty paws - and the Gold X-Series package.
Setting up Orb has been an adventure in internal IT limitations (our XP build, I believe - have asked internal IT to resolve asap).
But Skype was up and running in an instant (used it yesterday, too) and I've set up a useful homepage for myself, created using google's personalised homepage for mobile.
Access to my home email was a doddle - sending or receiving - and I found myself checking my home email and sending replies from my phone/computer last night in front of the Chelsea game.
ebay is fine - but the text a little small. I used it to check my latest buyer had recieved their goods and was happy with the outcome.
There's an awful lot to discover on the X-Series N73, it's pretty much like getting yourself a new PC - with a new-to-learn operating system.
But the more I get to grips the more I like. Already it's meant I didn't turn on my home (fixed line) pc last night. Is this a glimpse into the future?
I'll bring you more on how it changes my internet use and the uses I find for it as regularly as I'm able.

Someone asked me this morning how much hassle it was having to text-type in all your usernames and passwords etc
Made me wonder how many people 'typed' before they were forced to do so by the desirability of accessing content on the internet via a pc.
People seem ever adaptable - provided the end result is what they want.

3 deal goes live - and they can't keep up with demand

Regulars will know I'm a big fan of the 3 deal to offer fixed-price free-at-point-of-use internet access (and more) on your mobile.
It went live today and I managed to order one this lunchtime. Prices are £5 for the silver version and £10 for the gold one (which includes orb and slingtv).
I don't want slingtv (just at the mo) but I do want orb, so I've gone for the gold.
Only one phone - the nokia - available yet - and no available date for the sony-ericsson.

The reality is this will cost me £25 for six months and £40 a month for the remaining 12.

If the fact that their website keeps crashing when you try to order the X-Series is anything to go by, demand is big.


Here's the smallprint:(i'd make it a link but blogger is having fun a bit of fun at the mo...)

We want you to have an enjoyable and unlimited experience of X-Series on 3. But as you’ll understand we need to manage this, so here are some things you should know.

About X-Series Gold and Silver
To use X-Series services, you need to buy an X-Series mobile, sign up to a Pay Monthly price plan, and buy X-Series Gold or Silver – all from 3. You can only use our X-Series services on X-Series mobiles.

If you also buy a Slingbox, you'll need to take X-Series Gold for a minimum of 12 months. Otherwise, X-Series Gold and Silver are for a minimum period of 6 months when bought on connection to 3. Or if bought after connection there's no minimum period. After this they will stay active on your account until you cancel the one you’ve chosen.

If you don’t use your monthly allowance it doesn’t roll over to the next month.

More on X-Series Gold
Mobile access to Orb or Slingbox does not include using your mobile as a modem.

For Orb and Slingbox you’ll need minimum PC software, PC and router specification and broadband at home.

Slingbox and Orb are for personal use only and you mustn’t breach copyright or get around copyright protection.

To watch home TV on your mobile you need to have a TV service that you can legally view.

Slingbox is sold separately and contains a Freeview receiver so you’ll need a TV licence if you haven’t already got one.

You’re responsible for your compliance with all of these terms.

Our fair use policy
We have fair use limits and hope you’ll use your common sense. These limits should be big enough for you to do all the things you want to do. But we’ll get in touch with you if we think you’re using our services unfairly, and especially if you’re abusing them. If we find people are using X-Series above these limits, we’ll review them. Here’s our take on fair use:

Unlimited data is 1GB per month. Also, your data usage doesn’t include using your mobile as a modem.
Windows Live Messenger won’t count towards your monthly data fair use limit but has its own limit of 10,000 messages per month.
Skype on 3 is 5,000 minutes per month. If you go over this you’ll need to wait until the start of the next bill month for the service to resume, however Skype calls can still be received.
Orb and Slingbox have a total combined limit of 80 hours a month.
Where can I access X-Series?
All X-Series services will work when there’s video coverage on 3’s networks in the UK or overseas and, except for Orb and Sling, will work in our UK standard coverage as well. International roaming voice call charges will apply when making Skype calls from 3's networks overseas.

When you’re online
When using the internet, you can’t use some websites (including adult websites) and some websites aren’t compatible with all mobiles.

Some email accounts might need a premium service upgrade from your supplier.

What else?
For more details on X-Series and our fair use policy see three.co.uk/xseries

X-Series Gold and Silver are provisioned as Add-ons and we may need to suspend or change them as permitted in the Terms for 3 Services.

3 accelerates mobile web in the UK

Sounds to me like 3 may have hooked up with orb.com (see post below, oh and here's the confirmation)... given that their new package appears to include the ability to access your home pc from your mobile.

The BBC reports that you'll also be able to make free internet calls from 3 mobiles (via a deal with Skype).

You'll be charged a flat-rate monthly fee (can't find anywhere saying how much!)

Here's the '3' webcast on the subject

And here's the full 3 promo for the X-series:

And me? I've just done another deal with 02 for 12 months - a company which had to have its arm twisted to let me have a 3G phone for less than £140 and which has a set data price!

Anyway, 3 looks the way ahead. Interesting that they describe themselves, not as a mobile network service provider or operator, but as a mobile media company.

Perhaps those who couldn't quite believe the predictions that mobile web would outstrip fixed web within two years can start to see the sense now? (See previous post).

Right of this minute, I think this is the single most significant digital development I've heard of since I started this blog.

The implications include:

a) the massive potential acceleration of mobile internet

b) A solution to the mobile memory problem (see post on orb.com, below)

c) A solution to potentially off-putting run-away data charges (though it remains to be seen how much 3's set price is

d) An answer to the 'problem' (for network providers) of free internet calls and access which would inevitably be made through wifi connected mobiles accessing the internet.

And of course (a) takes us rapidly to Tomi T Ahonen's conclusions about how websites will inevitably be designed for mobile as their primary access point within two years. Two years? Perhaps he'll have a recount.